EUR/USD 2008 Outlook
Selling US dollars was one of the best trades of 2007. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen as much as 13 percent against the Euro, 10 percent against the Japanese Yen and 8.5 percent against the British pound. The story of the dollar’s weakness also captured…
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GBP/USD 2008 Outlook
The British Pound saw an incredible reversal to end the year’s trade, as one of the darlings of global currency markets quickly turned into a primary victim of subprime-linked financial market duress. Indeed, the GBP initially scaled 26-year heights at $2.1160 before plummeting to its lowest in four months to…
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USD/CAD 2008 Outlook
The Canadian dollar, among the best performing currencies over the first three quarters of 2007, saw an abrupt and extensive retracement through the final months of the year. However, this turn in fortunes didn’t come before significant records were broken. Towards the end of the third quarter, the Canadian dollar…
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USD/CHF 2008 Outlook
In the last quarter of 2007, the Swiss franc staged an impressive rally against the U.S. dollar on evidence that the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the United States was becoming too small to compensate investors for assuming risks on the increasingly volatile U.S. financial markets. More specifically, from…
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AUD/USD 2008 Outlook
While the Australian dollar managed to post a 23-year high against the US dollar in the early days of November, the currency pair fell from 94 cents to 87 cents by the end of the year, erasing much of the early speculation that the Aussie will follow the Canadian dollar…
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2008 FX Outlook
The Fed’s current message of wanting to achieve ‘modest growth’ puts investors at a loss as to where the Fed’s focus really is. I can only assume that the overriding fear of inflation is what is keeping the Fed from not being more aggressive in its stance to the current…
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NZD/USD 2008 Outlook
The New Zealand dollar’s price movements against the US dollar during the fourth quarter of 2007 were relatively placid compared to the quarter prior, when the NZD/USD whipped around in a more than a 1,000 point range. However, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand remaining focused on inflation risks…
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Interest Rate Outlook for 2008 - Which Central Banks Will Be Increasing Rates in 2008?
Changes in interest rate expectations have been the main force behind many trends in the currency market. However, since interest rate expectations are both difficult to obtain and hard to measure, many traders prefer to stay away from them. In this article, we argue that interest rate expectations do matter…
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USDJPY Long Term View
We look today at the Monthly chart of the USDJPY. This pair is doing exactly what we expected when it reversed into the triangle (violet 5). The re-entry was followed by a break of a rising wedge which is a very powerful bearish pattern. In the same time the pair…
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EUR/USD Medium Term Outlook
The chart shows the movement started from 0.8563 (February 2001). As I wrote many times I think that the previous downtrend ended at this level (with a reversal triangle) and started the current very strong up-move in favor of the euro. It is obvious that the first wave from the…
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