Euro Open: Euro, British Pound In Play As ECB and BOE Promise Massive Rate Cuts
Interest rate announcements from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England headline a packed economic calendar in European trading hours. The ECB is expected to slash rates 0.50% while the BOE is expected to be even more aggressive, shaving a full percentage point off benchmark borrowing costs.
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Asia Session Recap
With the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate cut now history, we have the BoE and ECB later today to finish this week’s rate cut activity until the FOMC comes into focus next week. To jump start the Asia session today we had the RBNZ enthusiastically cut rates by 150…
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Euro Forecasts for December
Last month, I showed mostly monthly charts and multi-year forecasts. The first leg of USD strength (except for Yen) within a multi-year bull is probably complete or close to complete so this month I am focusing on shorter term structure. The EURUSD is at a crossroads right now. The immensely…
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Japanese Yen Forecasts for December
No change since last month: This is a chart that we have focused on time and time again. A 4th wave triangle (that took 12 years) is complete at 124.13 as a 4th wave and the USDJPY is headed lower in a 5th wave (and terminal thrust) that will end…
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British Pound Forecasts for December
The long term bearish objective for the GBPUSD remains below 1.3680. The bulk of December will probably see the GBPUSD trace out a 4th wave correction, which could reach as high as 1.6696 (38.2% of 2.0162-1.4554 and 4th wave of one less degree extreme).
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Swiss Franc Forecasts for December
No change since last month: The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (but as the inverse). The USDCHF is lagging the EURUSD a bit though as the pair just broke above its long term trendline (resistance in this case). The long term target is now above…
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Canadian Dollar Forecasts for December
I wrote last month that “the corrective nature of the decline from 1.6194 suggests that the USDCAD will eventually exceed 1.6194 (this may take years though). A large correction of the recent rally would serve as wave 2 within the 5 wave impulse that began at .9055.” A push through…
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Australian Dollar Forecasts for December
The AUDUSD spent all of November trading sideways. Still, a 5 wave drop from the top (.9856) is evident so a correction is underway. Initial resistance is the confluence of the former 4th wave and 38.2% of .9856-.6005; at .7256.
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New Zealand Dollar Forecasts for December
The NZDUSD count from the top is not nearly as clear as the AUDUSD count but the two tend to trade in tandem. Additional evidence favors a NZDUSD recovery this month, especially the quintuple divergence with RSI on the daily. Initial resistance is above .60, which is former congestion and…
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Recession Probability: Recession to Persist for Next Six Months
Our recession model puts the latest probability of recession at 94 percent. There is certainly overwhelming evidence that the domestic economy continues in recession mode as both consumer spending and business investment have weakened. Key model inputs such as leading indicators and employment signal continued problems ahead.
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